KERRY ON IRAN – AT 9:38 A.M. ET:  July 20th is the target date to complete a nuclear-arms agreement with Iran.  That's three weeks away.  Now Secretary of State John Kerry is warning Iran that it must make the necessary agreements.  But how much clout does a John Kerry warning have? From Kerry's own piece in WaPo: 

July 20, the deadline to negotiate a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, is fast approaching.

All along, these negotiations have been about a choice for Iran’s leaders. They can agree to the steps necessary to assure the world that their country’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful and not be used to build a weapon, or they can squander a historic opportunity to end Iran’s economic and diplomatic isolation and improve the lives of their people.

Diplomacy and leadership are marked by tough calls. This shouldn’t be one of them.

Iranian officials have stated repeatedly and unambiguously that they have no intention of building a nuclear weapon and that their nuclear activities are designed solely to fulfill civilian needs. Assuming that’s true, it’s not a hard proposition to prove.

The United States and our partners have demonstrated to Iran how serious we are. During the negotiations to reach the Joint Plan of Action, we extended our hand to the Iranians and met with them directly to understand what Iran wanted from its nuclear program. Along with our international partners, we helped chart a path that would allow Iran to have a domestic program for exclusively peaceful purposes. We proved that we were flexible in offering financial relief.

Throughout these talks, Iran’s negotiators have been serious. Iran has also defied the expectations of some by meeting its obligations under the Joint Plan of Action, which has allowed time and space for the comprehensive negotiations to proceed. Specifically, Iran has been eliminating its stockpile of higher levels of enriched uranium, limited its enrichment capability by not installing or starting up additional centrifuges, refrained from making further advances at its enrichment facilities and heavy-water reactor, and allowed new and more frequent inspections. In exchange, the European Union and the P5+1 have provided limited financial relief to Iran, even as the architecture of international sanctions and the vast majority of sanctions themselves remained firmly in place.

Oh, come on, John.  The issue here involves how much we actually know about Iran's nuclear program.  What is being hidden from us?  From international inspectors?  Nothing?  Are you sure?  Would you bet the lives of millions on our intelligence information?

Now Iran must choose. During the comprehensive negotiations, the world has sought nothing more than for Iran to back up its words with concrete and verifiable actions. We have, over the past several months, proposed a series of reasonable, verifiable and easily achievable measures that would ensure Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon and that its program is limited to peaceful purposes. In return, Iran would be granted phased relief from nuclear-related sanctions.

What will Iran choose? Despite many months of discussion, we don’t know yet. We do know that substantial gaps still exist between what Iran’s negotiators say they are willing to do and what they must do to achieve a comprehensive agreement. We also know that their public optimism about the potential outcome of these negotiations has not been matched, to date, by the positions they have articulated behind closed doors.

COMMENT:  All good words, but don't forget that Kerry's boss is Field Marshal Barack (where do I go to surrender?) Obama.  Obama is no man of action, and he has the spine of a jellyfish. 

Maybe Iran will be the exception.  We can hope, but don't expect.

July 1, 2014